2021 NFL Offseason To-Do List

 

2021 NFL Offseason To-Do List

Joseph DiPietro

 

The National Football League has been the sports league that best kept on track in the COVID-riddled 2020 season. Assuming it sticks to the normal offseason timeline, free agency begins in mid-March and the 2021 NFL Draft will begin at the end of April. Below we will break down each team’s outlook, biggest issues, and what they must do to combat their problems:

*this is being written on 7 December, so draft placement may change*

AFC EAST

Bills: Buffalo is a good football team. The defense is solid, and most defensive snaps will be returning. They have the early makings of a franchise-level quarterback in Josh Allen. Stefon Diggs made an immediate and explosive impact on the offense, Zack Moss and Devin Singletary are a reliable one-two punch at tailback, and to compete for a Super Bowl the Bills need to expand on that explosiveness. Buffalo is not a team that has one glaring problem to me, so they might have a relatively quiet free agency while looking to build on their young talent in the draft. Buffalo is already slated for a late-round draft slot, so Bills fans should expect to see safe picks like a quality offensive lineman, sure-tackling linebacker, or a versatile tight end. Their biggest challenge will be a division that is sure to get better, with New England and Miami improving, and the Jets can’t really get any worse.

Dolphins: Miami will be one of the more interesting teams to watch this offseason. They played a lot better than most experts expected this season, but the quarterback who carried the load will likely be gone to free agency. If Tua had blown us away, or if they had selected Justin Herbert like I suggested, the future of the Dolphins would look a lot brighter. But so far Tua has carried his durability issues into the NFL and the defense that has played well is losing quite a few snaps to FA, particularly at the linebacker position. It is way too early to give up on Tua, and if he is healthy he gives them a real chance to make the playoffs, but if he is not healthy they will struggle to move the ball without any bonafide skill players. Plus, they have played their way out of contention for any of the big name quarterbacks. Miami fans should expect either a resigning of Fitzmagic or the signing of another available quarterback like Trubisky for a low price, along with draft selections of linebackers, a receiver, and a quality tailback.

Jets: The New York Jets are on the clock. Despite Jacksonville’s best efforts, the AFC version of New York football has earned the first pick in the 2021 draft so far. Most years, I would advise the team in this position to trade the pick for a bunch of other picks because if you are picking first you don’t have much to work with. This year is different because of the guy who will be picked first. I am not a professional scout, but I know the game of football pretty well, and there has been one player in college for the last three seasons who has completed dominated every year- Trevor Lawrence. The Jets cannot pass up on Lawrence, and I don’t think they will, however, to make that pick worth it they have to do a lot to help him out. I am typically not a fan of starting a top rookie first overall QB in his first season. Not only is the game faster, but usually if you are picking first, your team stinks, and you risk getting him hurt. Joe Burrow is the perfect example of this. Please, New York, don’t make the same mistake with Trevor. In addition to picking Lawrence, the Jets need to sell the farm and build offensive line equity to surround him with. I know they don’t have much to offer, but they have a few decent skill players they can shop for young offensive linemen and additional picks. You might not get any stars, but you can find a few decent receivers and tailbacks anywhere, while you cannot find quality offensive linemen off the street. 2021 is going to be a bad year for the Jets no matter what, so do not make it worse by risking Trevor’s health, and use it to build up the team of the future.

Patriots: I really do not know what the Patriots should do this offseason. They have played pretty well this season with not a ton of talent. Some really good players will return from COVID opt-outs so the defense will get better. If he doesn’t retire, the Pats still have the best coach in the history of the NFL on their side, so you know they’ll be ok, and I don’t see them giving into a complete rebuild. The first thing they need to address is the quarterback position. I like Cam Newton; even as a Georgia fan I have been impressed by Cam on and off the field since he was selected out of Auburn, and especially love what he has done with his foundation. Unfortunately, he didn’t perform too good this season and I feel the end of his career is approaching. New England won’t be in position to draft any of the top QBs, of course it’s Belichick and he might find a 10-time Probowler in the 6th round, but assuming that doesn’t happen here are some options: first they can snag a successful journeyman to bridge the gap, such as Fitzpatrick, and draft some skill players to help him out. Second, they look to trade to get a decent QB out of a bad situation such as Matt Stafford or Deshaun Watson. Third, they trade up or sit tight and hope to get one of the better QBs in the draft that would be available such as Mac Jones out of Alabama or Kyle Trask out of Florida. Whatever they do, the Patriots will compete for the playoffs as long as Bill doesn’t leave. If that happens? Time to start over.

AFC NORTH

Bengals: I will be the first to admit that Joe Burrow was not my top QB in last year’s draft. And although Justin Herbert might be the real deal too, Joe Burrow played extremely well and single-handedly won the Bengals at least a couple games this season. Unfortunately, as previously mentioned, Cincy put Joe in the worst situation you can put a promising quarterback in- behind a garbage offensive line. You can’t fault him, he wanted to compete and he is a fighter which is what I love most about him, but to risk his health behind guys who can’t protect him was horribly irresponsible for the Bengals. It was a matter of time before he was hurt, and unfortunately it was a significant injury. I hope he heals and comes back the same, because he was so fun to watch. But the injury puts Cincy in an odd position. 2021 will be a wash for them if Joe Burrow will not play, and if he does without being healthy, the Bengals coaching staff should be fired for putting their best player at risk again. So realistically the upcoming season should be used similarly to the Jets where they trade off what they have to rebuild around Burrow, and select the best offensive linemen available in this draft. Their only other option is to trade Burrow and take a chance on Justin Fields or one of the other quarterbacks in this draft. Either way, every other pick should be used to build a functioning offensive line, followed by some decent tacklers on the other side of the ball.

Browns: The Browns have graduated from not beating anyone to beating the bad teams. That’s a good thing- you’ve got to start somewhere. I think Cleveland is a player or two away from legitimately competing. Unfortunately, the position of need is the hardest one to fill- quarterback. Draft hindsight is always easier than at the moment, but it still baffles me that Baker was the first QB selected in 2018. Admittedly, I really liked Josh Rosen, who hasn’t done much at all, but my other top guy was Josh Allen. If Cleveland picked Josh Allen they would be competing for a Super Bowl. But I don’t want to live in the past here, so looking ahead the Browns must upgrade at QB. They might have one of the decent quarterbacks available at their pick, maybe Mac Jones, or perhaps they take a chance on a guy like Jamie Newman or Brock Purdy in the second round. If they draft a QB, they can keep Baker on the roster and see how it works out, or trade him away for some other picks or talent if the drafted guy works out. The other thing Cleveland must do is trade away OBJ and get everything they can for him. Not only will this offload a heavy contract, but he doesn’t add much to their run-first scheme dominated by Nick Chubb. Either get some high draft picks for him, or maybe acquire some defensive help for a unit that has played better this season than expected. I haven’t bought into the Browns hype in recent years, but I expect them to compete in the next few seasons.

Ravens: The Ravens were one of the top teams impacted by injuries and COVID in 2020. Losing your all-pro tackle a week after signing him to a massive extension normally hurts, but when it happens to a team that relies heavily on the run it hurts even more. Combine that with significant defensive snaps missed to illness and we got a disappointing encore season from MVP Lamar Jackson and Baltimore. The Ravens have a lot of players due to enter free agency, especially on defense, but not too many that they can’t afford to keep, so I expect them to look pretty similar to the way they have looked. Assuming they get healthy and COVID-free, they will have a good defense and a reliable run game. The area they must improve is in the passing game. Lamar was the league MVP for a reason- He has the ability to win a Super Bowl. Does he need to improve his accuracy and progression? I think so. But he’s got the skills to take Baltimore all the way. What would highlight his abilities is the addition of a #1 receiver. Devonta Smith should be available to Baltimore in the draft, but division rival AJ Green is also set to enter free agency, so they could pick him up and use their first round selection to reinforce the offensive line. Baltimore has a good front office, so I have faith in their selection and signing process, and expect them to compete in 2021.

Steelers: Pittsburgh is in an interesting situation. On one hand, they have all the makings of a contender; on the other hand, they have all the makings of a rebuild. Pittsburgh is another team that has a good front office and coaching staff, so I expect they will turn all the rebuild problems into contender assets, but they have a lot of work to do. First, there are a lot of offensive players due to enter free agency, and some of them may require large paychecks. JuJu Smith-Schuster is one of my favorite personalities in the NFL, and if I had to guess, he might be smart enough to take a smaller payday in order to play on a better team, something many athletes aren’t willing to do. Same goes for tackle and former Army officer Alejandro Villanueva, comeback story James Conner, and other offensive contributors. Assuming Pittsburgh figures out a way to satisfy enough of them, they can turn their attention to defense in free agency and the draft. Sadly, DE/OLB Bud Dupree will likely miss next season due to an ACL injury, but he also is up for FA so Pittsburgh may make a business decision and draft a pass rusher with their first round selection to compliment TJ Watt and let Dupree walk. This is the Steelers we are talking about, so they will figure out a way to put a solid defense on the field. One more issue faces Pittsburgh- how much longer will Big Ben be able to produce? He has done well this year, much better than I ever expected. I do think he is holding the offense back, with the quality skill players like Claypool and Ebron added to Smith-Schuster and Conner they should be beating teams by more than five points a game. But he has held the offense together and given them a chance to win. To continue to compete, however, they will need to not only upgrade in talent but downgrade in age. They might have a chance at drafting a quality quarterback, especially if they like one of the second round options. But if they don’t get a chance to draft their QB of the future, look to Pittsburgh to take a short term chance on a younger, unproven quarterback such as Josh Rosen or Sam Darnold.

AFC SOUTH

Colts: I know this storyline applies to half the teams in the league, but the Colts have a quarterback problem. Five years ago I would have said you can win without a good QB. I don’t believe that anymore, and when you think about how the quarterback is the only person other than the center to touch the ball every play, it makes sense. There are certainly offensive schemes that can make up for the lack of a star, but I don’t believe it is possible to win a championship without a top-half QB anymore. The Colts fall into this category, and they have for the last few years. It isn’t their fault- Andrew Luck had a rough go with injuries and left them looking for answers, but Jacoby Brissett and Philip Rivers were not the right ones. Indy has some players  they need to re-sign, but no one should be a problem financially, and the base of the offensive and defensive lines returns, which is their strength. Similar to Pittsburgh, they may have a chance at drafting a QB late in the first round, but they also could take a chance on trading for a younger player to fill the position. I expect them to use their first pick to either upgrade their secondary that is a little older than preferred, or to add an elite outside threat at receiver. Regardless of who is under center next year, they will look to capitalize on an elite defense and a solid run game.

Jaguars: Unlike the Jets, the Jaguars have a lot more pieces to build around, so I don’t expect a complete rebuild here. There are a lot of young players to be excited about like Shenault, Henderson, defensive Josh Allen, Chaisson, and DJ Chark, who they won’t be paying a ton of money, so they can sign some big name free agents if they are trying to compete right away. Jacksonville also has two first round picks currently, so I expect them to use the first on a quarterback, either Justin Fields or Zach Wilson. The second first round pick will depend on whoever their new coach will be, but I expect it to be a pass rusher or receiver. They are in a tough division with Indy and Tennessee, but if they can nail down a quality quarterback in the draft and put together an offensive line to protect him, Jacksonville should win at least a few more games than their 2020 total of one.

Texans: Houston has the opposite problem of most teams in the league; they have a stud QB, but the rest of the team downright stinks. Bill O’Brien drove this team and its future into the dirt, so if there is a team that isn’t already at the bottom that needs to call it a day, it’s Houston. I love Deshaun Watson. He is the most talented QB in the NFL in my mind, and he is completely wasted with the lack of protection and skill around him. For the future of the program, and for Deshaun’s sake, Houston’s best move is to sell Deshaun for the likely three first round picks they will get for him from one of the teams that is a QB away from competing like New England, Cleveland, or San Francisco. They should shop every bit of talent they have- someone will offer a lot of JJ Watt and Laremy Tunsil, and then look to start over completely. I would sign a journeyman quarterback to get through 2021, and then either pick Trey Lance or Houston native Kyle Trask, or wait until 2022 to take Sam Howell, JT Daniels, or Jayden Daniels with one of their likely multiple first round picks. Of course, the rest of the picks and signings should be offensive linemen to ensure that quarterback is protected. I doubt Houston will go this route, because Deshaun is that good, but they will continue to stink until they hit the reset button since they will be putting a large bulk of their cap space towards one player.

Titans: Tennessee has a lot of players set to enter free agency, but it is a manageable group they could bring back a lot from. I like Ryan Tannehill; two years ago I called that he would take Marcus Mariota’s spot and make Tennessee better and that was spot on. However, $30 million is a lot of money for Tannehill and since they rightfully decided to pay Henry in the last offseason, they are going to be strapped for cap space. The Titans have a young, but promising coaching staff so the cap issue might not be too bad. Their second best offensive player in AJ Brown has a year or two left before an extension, and they have done a tremendous job building a solid offensive line without breaking the bank. Despite the attention Tennessee’s offense has gotten, the defense has underperformed lately. Jadeveon Clowney hasn’t lived up to his hype and Vic Beasley was pretty useless for Tennessee, so Titans fans should look for defensive line help either in the draft or free agency, and some offensive line help in the draft they can get for a good value. Corey Davis has played well this year, but still not quite up to his high draft pick expectations, so I would expect the Titans to look for a pass catcher to compliment AJ Brown on the outside, or re-sign Davis if they can get a good deal.

AFC West

Broncos: I always get Denver wrong. I picked Denver as a sleeper team for 2020 and I guess they just never woke up. I thought Drew Lock was going to be a stud at quarterback. I thought Denver would be extremely explosive on offense. Boy have I been wrong about them. Many of their struggles can be tied to injuries. Sutton was injured early, Fant, Jeudy, and Hamler have each battled some of their own, and the quarterbacks have been a mess. On top of the offensive wounds, their star pairing of Chubb and Miller have yet to consistently play together. They have two big decisions to make this offseason. The first is quarterback; do they feel comfortable with Drew Lock? If they think he is still the future, then they can go offensive line or defense in the draft and free agency. If not, they need to find one immediately, because the offense has a lot of weapons for not a lot of money now. The second question is what to do with Von Miller. Denver has an option for him this offseason, and regardless they should probably pick it up. Once that is done, they either keep him if they feel they can compete this season, or they need to trade him to a contender for some future picks. In a crazy deal, maybe Denver can pair Lock and Miller in a deal for a higher pick to get a quarterback they really like in the draft. Both those questions depend on how good Drew Lock can be, and I have been wrong about him in the past so I will refrain from judgement this time around.

Chargers: The AFC Los Angeles team has tremendous potential, but a ton of question marks. The first thing they will address is the coaching situation. I like Anthony Lynn a lot. He seems to be a man of quality character. But for whatever reason his teams are completely unable to win close games. I thought Philip Rivers was the problem, and he hasn’t impressed me in Indy enough to prove to me otherwise, but Justin Herbert has played extremely well, and the Chargers still continue to lose in the worst ways. Like Dan Quinn in Atlanta, quality character only takes you so far in the NFL and Lynn’s days are likely numbered. I won’t speculate who the Chargers will get, but I imagine offensive coordinators will form a line out the door to get their hands on Herbert. After they decide on a new coach, they will need to address the high number of offensive linemen and defensive front players heading to free agency. They might have to replace a few of them through the draft, but they should be able to hang on to most of them, and then they can focus on a search for a compliment to Keenan Allen. The Chargers are headed for a top-five draft pick. I typically prefer the mentality of trading high picks for a lot of lower picks because teams typically need more than just one problem solved. However, for LAC, that high pick could be very effective if used on Kyle Pitts. Even if the Chargers keep Hunter Henry, who is habitually injured, Pitts offers any offense a versatile weapon that is a nightmare to account for. I would love to see a Herbert-Pitts connection, with Allen on the outside and a healthy Ekeler in the backfield. Finally, Los Angeles needs to get Derwin James healthy. Assuming they keep Melvin Ingram, LAC retains one of the best edge rush duos in football with him and Joey Bosa. That combo has yet to consistently play with a monster like James in the defensive backfield and they can create a lot of havoc in a division filled with high-powered offenses.

Chiefs: I doubt the Chiefs care at all what I have to say since they are consistently competing for a Super Bowl and likely will be for years. Hell I doubt any of these teams care what I have to say, although some of them probably should listen. But for the Chiefs, looking at their free agent list they need to ensure their offensive line is addressed. They’ve done a good job getting great value interior o-linemen, and if they can bring those guys back I imagine they will. They also should get their doctor guard back from battling COVID, so that will help. Bottom line, they have locked up the best player in the NFL and they need to protect him. Other than the offensive line, the Chiefs need to replace three of their receivers, although that task might be easy considered Patrick Mahomes makes everyone better. They will keep their core of Mahomes, Kelce, Hill, and Edwards-Helaire, and Mecole Hardman continues to improve. If they can snag a big-bodied receiver like Seth Williams from Auburn or Terrace Marshall from LSU in the draft and either re-sign LeVeon Bell or get another backup tailback they will be set on offense to continue their domination. The defense has played very well this season, and they will lose a few players to FA but I expect them to be about the same. They might even be better if abandoned cornerback DeAndre Baker lives up to his draft pick.

Raiders: Vegas has one of the lowest number of players entering free agency in the league, so heading into the offseason they will look about how they do right now. That is a good thing for continuity, but if they have a second straight end-of-season collapse perhaps they need some changes. Jon Gruden knows quarterbacks infinitely more than I do, so I’m going to assume that since he stayed with Derek Carr last offseason, he is comfortable doing it again. If so, that frees them up to do whatever they want with draft picks and free agent signings. Offensively, they could use a big bodied wide receiver to fill out a solid grouping of Waller, Ruggs, and Jacobs. The Raiders have a pretty good offensive line, but certainly they could use an early round pick to help progress the run game even further to relieve some pressure off of Carr. Defensively, Maxx Crosby is the only player on their roster with significant sack numbers and in a division where they will play Mahomes, Herbert, and Lock in six games, they need to have someone else to pressure the quarterback. Jon Gruden knows the game of football, and they have some pretty significant weapons to put pressure on anybody in the league, so I would never count the Raiders out.

NFC EAST

Cowboys: While I did pick the Cowboys to win the NFC East last offseason, I also specifically mentioned that they were not worthy of the playoffs. Why did I go against the 50% of “expert analysts” who picked them to win the Super Bowl? They have forgotten what made them successful just two years ago- a dominant offensive line. When you can run the football, you completely control the game. You dictate how the game flows, keep the opponent off the field, and (typically) eliminate turnovers. All that has changed for Dallas and even though the Jets and Jaguars have been completely pathetic this season, the Cowboys are the most embarrassing. The offensive line is a shell of the one that used to dominate opposing defenses. Instead of drafting a lineman, the Cowboys took another receiver with their first overall pick in 2020, and they didn’t need that at all. Maybe if they had a better offensive line, their $20 million tailback wouldn’t be averaging the lowest yards-per-carry and yards-per-game of his career. Then there’s the Dak problem. I like Dak- I don’t love him though, and he isn’t worth $40 million to me. It wouldn’t be the worst contract in the NFL, and it might not be the worst contract on their own team if they decide to pay him that. But he has yet to come close to a Super Bowl even with the best offensive line in the game and some really good skill players. Certainly, football is a team sport, and not all the blame falls on him, in fact, most of the blame probably falls on the offensive coordinator in New York who should be fired for the second straight year. Dallas has to figure out if they want Dak to be the QB of the foreseeable future or if it’s time to cut him loose and go after someone else. Once they figure out the quarterback position, they need to rebuild the offensive line, and if that includes a trade with Gallup or Lamb so be it.

Eagles: Philly and Dallas have very similar problems. Both have gone from elite offensive lines to poor ones, and for some reason NFL general managers continue to overlook the most important unit on a football team. Philly actually is sitting much worse than Dallas though- they have already signed their quarterback to a massive deal, and unless they can force a trade they are stuck with Wentz for a while, either physically or financially. Philly also has a shadow of the skill players that Dallas has. Ertz has been fragile in the last few years and they have had to pull receivers off the practice squad for the last two seasons. Even the guys they intended to start haven’t been very good when healthy. Philly has a decent defense though, so if they can find a way to rebuild their offensive line, they might have a chance, because Wentz isn’t the worst quarterback in the world, and they still play in the NFC East. If they can re-sign the defensive players up for free agency, they can use top pick on a guy like JaMarr Chase or Jaylen Waddle, and follow that pick with some quality offensive linemen.

Football Team: Washington has my favorite roster in the division. They absolutely must re-sign Scherff and Kerrigan to shore up their quality fronts. The interesting question for Washington is who to draft with a top-ten pick. Do they trust Alex Smith? He has played pretty dang good considering his circumstances, but he isn’t the QB of the future. If they feel that Fields or Wilson or Lance is that guy, they should go for it. With Smith they could even sit the rookie for a season to learn the game a little more. With that, they can trade Haskins for whatever they can get. If they don’t love any of the quarterbacks available, or if other teams trade up to beat them, they can hang out to Haskins for one more season until they draft one of the top guys in 2022. Then they can draft another weapon for the offense to compliment surprise standouts McLaurin and Gibson.

Giants: Before the 2020 season I predicted the Giants to be one of the tougher teams in the NFL, but I didn’t expect them to compete for the playoffs. I love Joe Judge and his old school style, I just didn’t think the Giants had the roster or the rest of the coaching staff to be successful yet. Bringing in Jason Garrett to add some head coaching experience I suppose was a good idea, but he was so disappointing in Dallas I wouldn’t have touched him. The same goes for Freddie Kitchens, and maybe he is the best tight ends coach in the league, but for Judge who preaches discipline and fundamentals, neither coach instilled those traits in their previous teams so why would you bring them in now? I would take a long look at my coaching staff and see what direction and personality the Giants want to have moving forward. After addressing the coaching staff the Giants must work to keep the defense together. New York’s defense has played outstanding this season despite being on the field for a ton of snaps. A few key pieces have expiring deals so they need to address those issues. Once the defense is kept together, the Giants need to re-work the offensive line and get Daniel Jones a #1 receiver. The Giants have some good offensive linemen who are playing in the wrong spots. Cam Fleming should be at guard and Andrew Thomas should be at right tackle. Those two would be a force in the run game together, but for that to happen they need to find a left tackle. Nate Solder isn’t the answer, but he’s under contract and might have to work until they upgrade. The Giants draft will look drastically different depending on their division finish (they range anywhere between sixth and into the teens depending on if they win the division or not…) so if you’re a fan, hope they find a way to lose the division and maybe they get a shot at Kyle Pitts or JaMarr Chase. They also could use some help at defensive end. As good as the defense played it will get better with a legitimate pass rush. The best part of the Giants future is their promising head coach. Lots of teams have chased Patriot assistants and failed. It is still way too early to know for sure, but the initial outlook on Judge is good. His teams are going to practice and play hard, compete in every game, and punch you in the mouth no matter what the score is. That is my kind of style, and as a semi-Giants fan I love to see it back in New York, which is exactly the attitude that led to the Coughlin Super Bowl championships.

 

NFC NORTH

Bears: The Bears have done themselves no favors by winning a few games they had no business winning. Projected in the middle of the draft, they will resort to selecting one of the good-not-great quarterback prospects, and they need one bad. Chicago has two other big problems: the first is that Allen Robinson will be a free agent and they have no one to replace him on the roster. The second is Nick Foles. Foles is taking up a ton of cap space and unless something drastic changes between now and then, he will not be the starting quarterback, so to pay a backup $20 million really hurts. I don’t know if they are able to release him to save space, and if they can they will, but if not they need to find a way to trade him and perhaps Philly will want their knight in shining armor back. The good news is Chicago has what I consider a top ten defense which is mostly returning, so they are sitting well on that side of the ball. Re-signing Robinson or at a minimum finding a replacement such as AJ Green is a key, and then figuring out their quarterback situation will be the priority. If they can settle on a quality QB and increase offensive consistency, the defense can help them compete in a division that is vulnerable.

Lions: Will Detroit bring back Jim Caldwell and apologize for firing the only successful coach they have had in decades? I doubt he would come back if they did, but they owe him for the way he was driven out of town. Detroit is a team I would normally suggest conduct a total rebuild-aging quarterback, new coach, lots of free agents- but when you look at the roster they have a lot of solid pieces. If they can keep most of the free agents, especially the majority that are on defense, they might be alright. The offensive line is not terrible, but needs work, and they have a star in tailback D’Andre Swift if he can stay healthy. Stafford is getting older and he has probably taken more hits in his career up to this point than any QB in history, but he is a fighter and a gunslinger and can still compete. TJ Hockenson is a quality tight end, and assuming they bring back Kenny Golladay, the offense is an O-linemen and another receiver away from being pretty dang good. I expect the Lions to draft a weapon or two to relieve some pressure from Swift, and then reinforce a pass rush that has been unreliable at best.

Packers: This might be the boldest prediction in the league…What the Packers do this offseason relies completely on if they trust Jordan Love moving forward. One of the biggest advantages in football is to start a quarterback on his rookie contract. This saves so much money and allows a team to surround him with quality weapons and protection. The Packers have already solidified a quality offensive line, so in theory, Green Bay can trade Rodgers away for likely two first round picks. Jacksonville could be the destination, but I think they owe him better than that. I think, and would personally like to see Rodgers head to San Francisco to reunite him with his home town team and give San Fran what they have been missing. I have no doubt the 49ers would offer the next two first round picks for Rodgers, which Green Bay can then use to actually help compliment Adams on the outside. If they don’t trust that Love is the future, not only did they waste their 2020 first round selection, but instead of having a bunch of picks and extra money to spend, Green Bay will have to sacrifice either adding an offensive weapon or adding some linebacker depth they desperately need to stop the run. All of their skill players except Adams are free agents this year, so it will be interesting to see who they decide to pay and if they are even able to with so much money into the offensive line and Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay is consistently one of the best front office teams in the NFL, and Matt LaFleur looks to be the real deal, so I have faith, but I will be interested to see how Green Bay addresses their problems moving forward.

Vikings: Minnesota’s offseason might be a battle of want versus need. With a defensive coach like Zimmer, they likely want to rebuild a defense that has played as good as they can with the loss of so many good players. However, with the offense they have working, they need to bolster the offensive line, because their best chance of winning is controlling the clock with a healthy Dalvin Cook. One of the roadblocks is Kirk Cousins, who is occupying a large amount of cap space for not being the focal point of the scheme, so restructuring that would do them a lot of good. Minnesota has a promising combination of Thielen, Jefferson, and Smith along with Cook, so the offense will be set once the line is solidified. If they can find a lineman or two in free agency, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Vikings take a chance on a quarterback with their first pick to eventually replace Cousins and save some money in the future. If they don’t, the first few picks will address the line and then they need to build defensive depth with their later picks.

NFC SOUTH

Buccaneers: “Tompa Bay” has a lot of tough decisions to make this offseason. They have some significant defensive leadership entering free agency, and most of the offense that was supposed to light it up will be off contract as well. I don’t think AB, Fournette, or McCoy did enough in 2020 to warrant re-signing. Maybe if they can keep those guys for a low price it would help. The interesting ones to me are Gronk and Godwin. Gronk had flashes of his old self and Godwin is probably the most consistent receiver when he is healthy. Due to the health of OJ Howard, I expect the Bucs to re-sign Gronk and Godwin and look to add another tailback in free agency or the draft. Tampa desperately needs offensive line help to protect Tom Brady- everyone (except NFL defensive coordinators, for some reason) knows that Tom doesn’t like being hit, and he took a lot of shots in 2020. Assuming they take care of the defense in free agency, look for the Bucs to use their top picks on offensive line and tailback, and maybe look for a backup quarterback to eventually replace Brady in Florida.

Falcons: Full disclosure, I consider myself primarily a Falcons fan, so what I’m about to say hurts me deep. Atlanta has the roster of a perfect one-year rebuild, but to do so they need to make some sacrifices that most fans, myself included, don’t want to hear. Alex Mack and Todd Gurley are off contract, and to sign either would likely cost a hefty price. Julio Jones and Matt Ryan are eating a ridiculous amount of cap space, especially considering Julio only plays half the season. Please don’t get me wrong, I love all of those players, but the proper business decision is to find ways to cut ties with all of them, unless they are willing to make significant personal pay cuts. Assuming they don’t, the trade value for Matty Ice and Julio is tremendous. Ryan could be another option to send to San Francisco to reconnect with Kyle Shanahan and make a run at a Super Bowl. Julio, when healthy, is one of the top two receivers in the league alongside Deandre Hopkins, so a lot of teams would be willing to offer a first round pick and maybe more. So here’s the wildest trade of the offseason: Send Matt Ryan and Julio Jones to the Jets or Jags for the first overall pick and select Trevor Lawrence. With the saved money, Atlanta can sign UGA great AJ Green or Allen Robinson to replace Julio and then use the rest of their picks on the defensive line that needs help to surround Grady Jarrett with talent and eat blockers to let Deion Jones roam free. They also must re-sign Keanu Neal, and then I would look to move up in the draft to grab Najee Harris or Travis Etienne. There are two value centers available in free agency in Austin Reiter and David Andrews who both have Atlanta ties, and they can help ease a new quarterback into the NFL. In the event that none of those deals get done, Atlanta can still be ok, but need to really hammer the defensive line in the draft and either re-sign Gurley for a good deal, or figure out a good value for a lead tailback.

Panthers: Carolina has one of the better overall offseason situations. They have lots of cap space to make moves, a young and energetic coaching staff, and some key players signed to build around. The biggest worry for Carolina is that new offensive coordinator Joe Brady lands a head coaching job somewhere, because that is just how the league works now. If they hold on to him, or maintain the same capability in the play calling department, the offense will be ok. Teddy Bridgewater has played better than I expected, although his price tag still may a little steep. They have locked in all-everything Christian McCaffrey for a few years and have their outside production returning. I expect them to re-sign Curtis Samuel who proved incredibly versatile and fits the scheme very well, and then they need to address a large number of offensive linemen hitting free agency. Overall, the defense overachieved and played good enough to keep them in most games this season, which is all you can ask these days. They will likely add some defensive assets with their open space and look for another weapon or two in the draft. I like the fit of Kyle Pitts from Florida or a Pat Freiermuth from Penn State to give a versatile pass catcher to the offense. Depending on their Bridgewater plans, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Carolina take a chance in the second or third round on a quarterback if they like one, specifically Brock Purdy out of Iowa State who head coach Matt Rhule was familiar with at Baylor.

Saints: New Orleans has been one of the most consistent teams in the NFL over the last decade, and unfortunately for Saints fans they have consistently missed out on the Super Bowl in some of the most wild ways. New Orleans is built to win now, but they will have to replace Drew Brees to do that. The Saints have one of the better offensive lines in football, and one of the best defenses, and the majority of both are returning. Barring a trade, New Orleans will bring back my favorite tailback duo in Kamara and Murray. Currently they have one of the top four or five receivers in the league coming back, but the 2020 season was odd for him and there appears to be some drama around Michael Thomas. They certainly could get a lot of trade value for him, so that could be an option moving forward. If they can figure out a way to smooth over the relationship, then New Orleans keeps a solid core of skill players intact and just have to decide if Taysom Hill is the guy. If he is, which he has played pretty well, they’ll need to find a backup they are very comfortable with due to Hill’s playing style. If they want to go another direction, New Orleans could be one of the teams who only needs a quarterback to win immediately and might be a suitor for a big name like Watson or Rodgers. A lot of this could have been solved a year ago if Drew Brees would have retired then, but instead he has delayed the inevitable and basically crushed his own reputation in the meantime.

 

 

NFC WEST

49ers: San Francisco was my preseason pick the win the 2020/21 Super Bowl. Kyle Shanahan is the best play caller in football, they have an outstanding run game, great young talent in Kittle, Samuel, and Aiyuk, and the best pass rush in the league. While they still have hope and are getting healthier, they lost Nick Bosa for the season, traded Buckner to the Colts, and have add a tremendous number of injuries on both sides of the ball. I certainly don’t want to play the 49ers the rest of the season, however, they are not the complete team they were last year. They will get healthy in the offseason and I expect for them to compete again next year. I would say San Fran focuses on three things personnel wise for the upcoming year. The first is pass rush depth. Part of this will depend on health, but they were successful in the pass rush because they had more than just four guys who get after the quarterback. Javon Kinlaw has played well, but he couldn’t overcome all the losses from the previous defensive line. They must find that depth again to bring back a scary threat up front. The second task is to secure the offensive line. They have had some significant injuries here too, but they need to be better in the middle. I love Ben Garland- Air Force officer and service academy graduate, but he is a backup lineman and San Fran needs to upgrade at Center and maybe even guard. The tackle spots are solid when healthy, so if they can rebuild the inside stronger, this run-first scheme will be scary. The third task is to determine the quarterback of the future. I said earlier that I no longer believe you can win a Super Bowl without a top half quarterback. Jimmy G is not that. He might be just below it, but he isn’t quite there, and more so, he is eating a ton of money from the team. He isn’t a bad quarterback, but isn’t worth his paycheck, and doesn’t do anything spectacular. San Francisco is a team I would like to see, and partially expect, to sell out for a quarterback they believe can win it all such as Rodgers, Ryan or even Watson. Can you imagine Deshaun Watson with that offense? Terrifying.

Cardinals: I have no idea, and probably will never know, how well I would do as a head coach in college football or the NFL. Arizona certainly is improving overall, but they aren’t taking the strides they should be with the talent they have on the team. You can’t help but wonder what the head coach’s impact on this team is. Remember, Kingsbury was an outstanding play caller at A&M, but he has struggled as a head coach and I’m still confused how he got this job in the first place. His claim to fame was coaching Patrick Mahomes, but he didn’t even win with Mahomes and according to the best player in the NFL, he barely knew how to read coverages before teaming up with Andy Reid. Some coaches are better X and O guys than they are program leaders, and so far between Texas Tech and Arizona, Kingsbury is one of those guys. The good news for him is that next year, this roster might be so talented it won’t matter, and that talented of an offense can win any game they play. They need some help on the offensive and defensive lines, but both units have played well, and having a quarterback as athletic as Kyler helps make an average line look better. The defense has overachieved this season and there’s no reason they can’t do that again, assuming they re-sign some of their better players like Patrick Peterson. The biggest problem on defense is the fact they are on the field the entire game. The offense either goes three-and-out, or they score in a flash, so I would hate being a defensive player on Kingsbury’s team. Luckily, they don’t have any free agents I see as impossible signings, and they are sitting pretty in cap space to do what they want. Arizona has one of, if not the most dangerous QB-WR duo in Kyler and Hopkins, so they need to capitalize on that while they can. Personnel-wise, the Cardinals need to replace Larry Fitzgerald, and they could do that with a versatile tight end or receiver. They should also look to upgrade at the tailback position. I thought David Johnson was a really good fit in Arizona, and while I would prefer having Hopkins over him it would have been cool to see both together. I don’t think Kenyan Drake is bad at all, but I imagine he will have a high asking price after some decent seasons, and I don’t see him as worth it. If the Cardinals can snag one of the stud backs in Najee Harris or Travis Etienne, and compliment Hopkins and Kirk with another threat, Arizona will be very hard to stop.

Rams: Los Angeles of the NFC looks a lot like San Francisco to me. They are paying a good-not-great quarterback a lot of money, have an outstanding pass rush (although the Rams is mostly due to one monster of a man in Aaron Donald), and they have an aging offensive line in need of an upgrade. Unlike Garoppolo, I know Jared Goff isn’t going anywhere, so the pieces around him are the focus of the offseason. LA has a few of the mid-level offensive weapons up for free agency and based on the scheme they can probably find replacements for them anywhere. Kupp and Woods return and Tyler Higbee should be back along with promising tailbacks Akers and Henderson. The Rams’ first round pick belongs to Jacksonville due to the Ramsey deal, and their cap projection isn’t pretty, mostly because they are paying Goff, Donald, and Ramsey a ton. They will have to be smart with their roster, but the scheme as been pretty consistent and they have some studs that allow them to compete, especially on defense. I would expect LA to reload on the offensive line, and add some replacement weapons around Goff, maybe some of the leftovers from the Chiefs like Sammy Watkins if he hits free agency. The Rams will maintain a roster and a staff that will compete consistently for a few years, but I do wonder if Goff is limiting them, both physically and financially.

Seahawks: Seattle has one of the best quarterbacks in the league, a consistent run game, and typically a consistent defense. With those things, any team can compete, and Seattle will do just that as long as Russell Wilson is their leader. Seattle is riding the middle of the cap standings, so they have some room to play with, but I imagine they will be paying DK Metcalf a bigger paycheck soon too. Like LA, Seattle traded their first round pick in the draft and they have a lot of foundational players due to hit free agency, but with the space they have I would expect them to look similar to how they look now. Russ has always had a subpar offensive line, so I would expect them to strengthen that position group with the picks they do have, or in FA, and then add some secondary help to allow Jamal Adams to roam the field how he wants. Seattle is a team you expect to be competitive no matter what, mostly because of the quarterback, but I imagine they will continue to be in conversation for a division title at a minimum.