2022 College Football Predictions

Playoff teams:

1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. Southern Cal

I will explain more why I like Georgia's chances at the end, but you always
have to respect a reigning champ with a lot of returning talent. I like Ohio
State's schedule and CJ Stroud played really well towards the end of the
year. They get Notre Dame and Wisconsin at home, back to back games against
Iowa and on the road to Penn State might be a challenge, but the only game
that really scares me is away at Sparty. They avoid Purdue on the road and a
strong finish last season could lead them to a strong year. Alabama is a
given until Saban retires, but I have them at #3 since I think they lose to
Georgia in Atlanta. A returning Heisman winner is always a solid offseason
but even without the future top ten draft pick they have probably the best
defense in the country. Southern Cal finishes my list, although I don't see
them as a top-4 team. They have a favorable schedule, with one concerning
game away at Utah and either a rematch against the Utes or a matchup with
Oregon to end their season. The additions of Caleb Williams and Jordan
Addison make them hard to stop and outside of a TBD defense in Oregon, the
Pac-whatever is soft on that side of the ball. We know Lincoln can score, so
I expect SC to be in the 50's regularly. 

Georgia beats SC in Atlanta and Bama beats Ohio State in Glendale, setting
up another rematch national championship where Alabama beats Georgia in SoFi
to win the title. Following the championship, Nick Saban retires and Dabo
Swinney takes over at Alabama. 

Other contenders: 
-Wake Forest
-Oregon
-Oklahoma
-Michigan State
-Clemson
-Baylor

I really like Sam Hartman at Wake and they get Clemson at home. Oregon gets
a shot to prove itself in week one, and even if they don't win they could
win out and find a way into the playoff. Oklahoma is always a contender and
they benefit from a very manageable schedule. Michigan State gets Ohio State
and Wisconsin at home but has to go to Michigan, who will still be a solid
team. It is no secret I am a big a fan of Mel Tucker and look forward to
watching them play. While everyone is writing off Clemson, Dabo Swinney is
still there and he knows how to coach football. Uiagalalei certainly
struggled last season but grew up late in the season and they didn't lose a
ton of production. Playing in the ACC with a weak FSU and a new Miami staff
helps too. Baylor is wildly under-considered in my mind, and I don't know
who in the Big 12 is dominant enough to challenge their defense
consistently. 

Sleepers:
-Minnesota
-Tennessee
-West Virginia
-Oklahoma State

Minnesota brings back a lot of production on a team that is only two years
removed from a division title. Tanner Morgan returns for his 8th season, and
PJ Fleck always has something up his sleeve. They have to go to Michigan
State and Wisconsin so that will be tough, but the rest of their schedule is
winnable. Tennessee is probably a little too trendy to fully be considered a
sleeper, but they have a solid core returning and the Heupel pace is always
tricky. With a lucky break here or there Tennessee could end up in Atlanta,
and I at least expect them in a Florida bowl game. West Virginia is the true
sleeper of this group, but they had a quality defense last year and added
what is possibly the best arm in the conference with JT Daniels. A down
conference and a chance to prove themselves early against Pitt could lead to
solid season. I am done counting Oklahoma State out. Mike Gundy changes
offensive coordinators every other year and continues to produce. The guy is
a weirdo but he wins games and evolves quickly to new styles. 

Bold predictions:
-Scott Frost fired before season is over
-James Franklin's last year at Penn State 

My bold prediction last year of Auburn finishing dead last in the SEC West
came so close to reality, and their offseason followed the same level of
success. This season I see two major shakeups in the Big Ten. Every college
football fan in the world will watch Nebraska play Northwestern as the first
major game of the year in Week 0. Anything less than a quality performance
against an average team is going to set the mood for Nebraska fans. In week
three they have a tricky road game in Statesboro against Clay Helton's new
team, and a loss there would be devastating to Scott Frost, especially if
it's followed with a road-blowout against Oklahoma. Scott Frost doesn't seem
like a bad guy at all, and you hate for a fanbase to turn on someone who
brought them so much success as a player, but I think Nebraska fans are
struggling with the lack of success and it is a matter of games before he is
out. James Franklin, who I do not think is a good guy, is in a similar boat
where the fanbase has a hard time with an 11-11 record over the last two
years. Franklin has the country's worst "wins per outburst" record and I
think unless he knocks it out of the park this season, it will be his last
in State College.

Heisman:

1. Caleb Williams
2. CJ Stroud
3. Bryce Young
4. Sam Hartman
5. Nolan Smith

A Heisman trophy is an individual award that requires a team effort and a
favorable situation. We already talked about everyone on this list except
one, and I think those top four are at a minimum good players, on good
teams, in good situations. Every year a defensive star on a top team always
makes his way into the conversation. Will Anderson might be that guy, maybe
even Jalen Carter, but Nolan Smith is my favorite player in college football
this season and his versatility makes him a dangerous man. He has skillsets
that resemble two other Georgia greats - Thomas Davis and David Pollack -
and I can't wait to watch his senior season play out.

Georgia football:
-Stetson can only get better and has off-season as #1
-13 personnel unstoppable
-defense young but deep
-special teams solid, who is punting? 
-coaching maintained minus Bobo

As for the national champs, I am cautiously optimistic for a team losing so
much talent, but there is a lot of upside to this squad. It starts with
Stetson. Let's face reality, he made some bad mistakes that nearly cost
Georgia a championship, and I don't love how he talks. But he is not the
worst QB Georgia trotted out on the field in my life time, not really close,
and his surrounding cast is some of the best, if not THE best in the nation.
With a full offseason under Monken, I think Stetson might take a few steps
forward and he doesn't even have to with one of the best offensive lines in
the country, a group of quality tailbacks, a group of quality receivers, and
the single most loaded position group in all of college football: Georgia's
tightends. I don't know what the record is for plays ran with 13 personnel,
but Georgia is likely going to break that record and show me a team who can
cover Bowers, Gilbert, and Washington in the same play. Throw in a healthy
Arian Smith, Kearis Jackson, Dom Blaylock, Ladd McConkey, and emerging star
AD Mitchell, along with absolute sleepers in Kenny McIntosh and Kendal
Milton, the Dawgs might have the best offense in football. Defensively it is
impossible to replace the production lost from last season, but Kirby
recruited well during his time and continues to do so, and I think after a
few games the defense is going to prove even faster than last season. Maybe
not as strong or deep, but the speed is going to kill for this defense. The
return game will be very solid, Podlesny returns and should be reliable, but
our punt game is a question mark. Depending how they determine to replace
Camarda, the special teams should stay near the top of the country's units
and give the offense good field position. My number one concern is only
halfway serious, and that is the addition of Mike Bobo to the staff. It was
never a secret, but I could not stand Bobo as our OC. Monken is certainly
running the show, which reduces my concern, but I am slightly superstitious
and let's face it, Georgia never won a championship with him in red and
black and they did while he was at Auburn, so maybe that scares me a little.
I don't think Georgia is as talented as last year, but they might be a
little healthier going into and during the season with their schedule and
their depth, so they might just have enough to compete for a back-to-back
title.